Scientists Warn we Must Act to Diminish Rising Sea Levels

Scientists warn that rising sea levels will be disastrous, however they also state that it is within our power to not only defend against rising tides, but also to reduce the rate at which they rise.

As reviewed in an Inhabitat article, Benjamin Strauss is a scientist who has published reports on rising sea level. As Strauss has said, “Sea level rise is like an invisible tsunami, building force while we do almost nothing… We have a closing window of time to prevent the worst by preparing for higher seas.”

The Cost of Sea Level Rises: Two Trillion Per Year

Rising sea levels are not only imperiling people, the cost to property and infrastructure amounts to trillions of dollars a year. However, if governments act now they can significantly reduce the costs associated with sea level rises. Failure to act soon will cause the costs to increase exponentially.

According to a study from the Stockholm Environment Institute called “Valuing the Oceans”, if the rise of greenhouse gases continues to go unchecked, it will result in lasting damage that will cost $2 trillion each year.

America at Risk from Rising Sea Levels

Millions of Americans including people in Florida, Louisiana, California, New York and New Jersey are at risk from flooding. In total more than half of the US population in more than 285 cities may be at risk including NYC. Million of people and trillions of dollars in property and infrastructure assets are located in areas that are less that 1 meter above the high tide mark.

Flooding of up to four feet could cover 3 million acres including military bases, agricultural lands and toxic waste dumps. Almost 5 million Americans live in homes at less than four feet above high tide, and 3.7 reside at less than one meter (3.3 feet) above high tide.

Sea Levels are Rising 60 Percent Faster than Anticipated

Sea levels are rising much faster than previously anticipated. Just how much sea levels will rise depends on what we do to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.

The rate of sea level rise appears to be much faster than anticipated by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

According to a November 27th study, published in published in Environmental Research Letters, the ocean is rising much faster than predicted by the IPCC.

Scientist Warn Time is Running Out to Avert a Climate Catastrophe

It is still possible to stave off the worst effects of climate change but the window of opportunity is rapidly getting smaller. There have been a spate of reports just ahead of COP 18 in Doha that conclusively make the point that we must act now to reduce CO2 and other GHGs.

As reported in the Huffington Post, "It is still possible to avoid 2-degree warming, and arguing it is too late could very easily be a self-fulfilling prophecy," said Michael E. Mann, a climatologist and director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. "That having been said, the real issue is whether or not we have the political will."

World Banks Warning: We Need to Act Now on Climate Change (Video)

The World Bank has released a report which is a sobering look at what an increase of 4 degree Celsius will look like. This study addresses the implications for disaster management and food supply and points out that the worst impacts will be on the world's poorest people. However, the report points out that we can do something about it, but the window is narrow and we have to take action now.

NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index

The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) contributed to an alarming report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). NOAA provided their own set of data arrived at independently and published in their Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI).

"The AGGI is a measure of the warming influence supplied by long-lived trace gases and how that influence is changing each year. The index was designed to enhance the connection between scientists and society by providing a normalized standard that can be easily understood and followed. The warming influence supplied by long-lived greenhouse gases is well understood by scientists and has been reported by NOAA through a range of national and international assessments. Nevertheless, the language of scientists often eludes policy makers, educators, and the general public. This index is designed to help bridge that gap. The AGGI provides a way for this warming influence to be presented as a simple index."

World Meteorological Organization Climate Warning

In November, the World Meteorological Association's (WMO) annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin stated that global CO2 levels are the highest they have ever been in human history, reaching 391 parts per million. Scientists warn that 350 parts per million is the upper limit for a a stable planet.

These levels of CO2 have been steadily rising at about 2 parts per million every year for the past decade. Current measurements of atmospheric carbon are 40% higher than at the start of the Industrial Revolution. The World Meteorological Organization, said that since the dawn of industrialization in 1750, humans have emitted 375 billion tonnes, of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The WMO indicates that future emissions will make the situation far worse.

World Bank Climate Change Warning

The World Bank has issued a report suggesting that the climate could warm a full 4 degrees by the end of the century. What is most troubling about this study is the fact that we may not be able to avert this temperature increase even if countries fulfill their current emissions-reduction pledges. Sadly, most countries are far from fulfilling even these modest pledges.

UNEP Warning: We are on the Brink of a Climate Catastrophe

The UN Environment Program’s Emissions Gap Report 2012, released Nov. 21, indicates that there is a massive gulf between what governments have pledged in terms of GHG emissions and what they are actually doing. To stave off a temperature increase of more than 2°C, nations have pledged to reduce their emissions a total of 44 gigatonnes by 2020. However, the UNEP report indicates that if we stay on our current trajectory we are likely to see temperature increases of 3-5 °C which risks a climate catastrophe.

According to UNEP, the gap between GHG emission reduction pledges and what is actually being done is 8 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2020, which is 2 Gt higher than last year’s assessment.

World Bank Report Predicts 4°C Temperature Increase

Business as usual will cause temperatures to rise by 4°C by 2060. If we fail to act on to reduce global warming causing GHG emissions we can expect food shortages, extreme weather and sea-level rise. These are the finding of a World Bank report published on November 19, 2012. The report is titled Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided. It predicts that sea-levels could rise by more than a meter by 2100.

As a direct corollary of a 4°C world we can expect more flooding in cities, as well as increasingly intense tropical storms, droughts and extreme rainfall. These affects will further damage ecosystems, and cause more species to go extinct.

Northern Ice is Melting at a Dramatic Rate

The combination of declining Arctic ice and Greenland's melting ice sheet are part of a troubling trend that cannot be ignored. As of June 2012, Arctic sea ice declined by 1.10 million square miles and as of July a total of 97 percent of Greenland's ice sheet had melted.

According to satellite images from NASA (see above left), Greenland's ice sheet is melting at an alarming rate. Before July 2012, the most extensive melting seen by satellites in the past three decades was about 55 percent. Ice core records reveal that we have not seen such pronounced melting of Greenland's ice sheet since 1889. To make matters worse a 70 square miles (181 square km) iceberg broke off Greenland’s Petermann Glacier.

A New Study Indicates We Are Reaching a Tipping Point

According to a new study we are on the verge of an environmental tipping point. We are heading towards an imminent, irreversible collapse. The researchers indicate that the planet’s ecosystems could quickly and irreversibly collapse this century. These conclusions were arrived at by 18 scientists using a combination of scientific theories, ecosystem modeling and paleontological evidence.

As reviewed in SFU News Online, these scientists reviewed the Earth’s worsening trends in biodiversity and extreme weather. This was factored in the context of the Earth's interconnected ecosystems. Their results were contained in an article titled "Approaching a State-Shift in Earth’s Biosphere," a paper recently published in Nature.

Environmental Tipping Points

We must act now to avoid the tipping points of runaway global warming. A tipping point occurs when climate changes pass a "critical threshold at which a small change in human activity can have a large, long-term consequence for the Earth's climate system." As opposed the gradual, long-term warming trend, such a tipping point could accelerate or change the effects already being perceived due to global warming. Researchers have identified nine possible tipping points: The Indian summer monsoon; Arctic sea ice, the Sahara and Sahel in Africa could change dramatically, the Amazon rainforest could die back significantly, the Boreal Forest could die back, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, the El Nino Southern Oscillation, he Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet.

OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction

Humanity has witnessed unprecedented growth and prosperity in the past decades, with the size of the world economy more than tripling and population increasing by over 3 billion people since 1970. This growth, however, has been accompanied by environmental pollution and natural resource depletion. The current growth model and the mismanagement of natural assets could ultimately undermine human development.