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Fossil Fuel Powered Carbon Bombs

A February 11th, 2013 Greenpeace report indicated that the fossil fuel industry is planning 14 massive carbon bombs. As stated in the report, "The world is quickly reaching a Point of No Return for preventing the worst impacts of climate change." Taken together massive coal, oil and gas projects will produce as much new carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2020 as the output of the entire US.

According to Greenpeace these projects will increase already unsustainable levels of emissions 20 percent by 2020. If they go forward with these projects we are certain to surpass the carbon limits set by climate scientists which will make it impossible to avoid runaway climate change. According to scientists the upper safe temperature limit is 2 degrees Celsius, however, taken together, these projects will increases global temperatures by 5 or 6 degrees.

Greenpeace says these 14 developments would produce 54,674 million tons of coal, 29,400 billion cubic meters of natural gas, and 260,000 million barrels of oil--but add 330 billion tons of CO2-equivalent emissions by 2050.

Scientist Warn Time is Running Out to Avert a Climate Catastrophe

It is still possible to stave off the worst effects of climate change but the window of opportunity is rapidly getting smaller. There have been a spate of reports just ahead of COP 18 in Doha that conclusively make the point that we must act now to reduce CO2 and other GHGs.

As reported in the Huffington Post, "It is still possible to avoid 2-degree warming, and arguing it is too late could very easily be a self-fulfilling prophecy," said Michael E. Mann, a climatologist and director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. "That having been said, the real issue is whether or not we have the political will."

Radiative Forcing: Carbon Dioxide and Methane

Radiative forcing is the warming effect on our climate due to carbon dioxide (CO2) and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs). In climate science radiative forcing is the change in net irradiance between different layers of the atmosphere. Typically, radiative forcing is quantified at the tropopause in units of watts per square meter. A positive forcing (more incoming energy) tends to warm the system, while a negative forcing (more outgoing energy) tends to cool it. Sources of radiative forcing include changes in insolation (incident solar radiation) and in concentrations of radiatively active gases and aerosols.

NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index

The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) contributed to an alarming report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). NOAA provided their own set of data arrived at independently and published in their Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI).

"The AGGI is a measure of the warming influence supplied by long-lived trace gases and how that influence is changing each year. The index was designed to enhance the connection between scientists and society by providing a normalized standard that can be easily understood and followed. The warming influence supplied by long-lived greenhouse gases is well understood by scientists and has been reported by NOAA through a range of national and international assessments. Nevertheless, the language of scientists often eludes policy makers, educators, and the general public. This index is designed to help bridge that gap. The AGGI provides a way for this warming influence to be presented as a simple index."

International Renewable Energy Institute Climate Warning

In a November 13 Press Release, the Renewable Energy Industry (IWR) indicated that last year greenhouse gases (GHGs) reached a record high. In 2011 there were 800 million more tons of GHGs than the preceding year. In total there were 34 billion tons of GHG emissions. In 1990, the global greenhouse gas output was estimated at 22.7 billion tons.

World Meteorological Organization Climate Warning

In November, the World Meteorological Association's (WMO) annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin stated that global CO2 levels are the highest they have ever been in human history, reaching 391 parts per million. Scientists warn that 350 parts per million is the upper limit for a a stable planet.

These levels of CO2 have been steadily rising at about 2 parts per million every year for the past decade. Current measurements of atmospheric carbon are 40% higher than at the start of the Industrial Revolution. The World Meteorological Organization, said that since the dawn of industrialization in 1750, humans have emitted 375 billion tonnes, of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The WMO indicates that future emissions will make the situation far worse.

World Bank Climate Change Warning

The World Bank has issued a report suggesting that the climate could warm a full 4 degrees by the end of the century. What is most troubling about this study is the fact that we may not be able to avert this temperature increase even if countries fulfill their current emissions-reduction pledges. Sadly, most countries are far from fulfilling even these modest pledges.

UNEP Warning: We are on the Brink of a Climate Catastrophe

The UN Environment Program’s Emissions Gap Report 2012, released Nov. 21, indicates that there is a massive gulf between what governments have pledged in terms of GHG emissions and what they are actually doing. To stave off a temperature increase of more than 2°C, nations have pledged to reduce their emissions a total of 44 gigatonnes by 2020. However, the UNEP report indicates that if we stay on our current trajectory we are likely to see temperature increases of 3-5 °C which risks a climate catastrophe.

According to UNEP, the gap between GHG emission reduction pledges and what is actually being done is 8 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2020, which is 2 Gt higher than last year’s assessment.

The Safe Upper Limit of Atmospheric Carbon is 350 PPM

As reviewed at 350.org, the science is clear, global warming is happening faster than ever and humans are responsible. Global warming is caused by releasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. The most common greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide. Global warming destabilizes the delicate balance that makes life on this planet possible. Just a few degrees in temperature can completely change the world as we know it, and threaten the lives of millions of people around the world. The planet is in peril because we've poured too much carbon into the atmosphere, and we already seen troubling signs including extreme weather and melting ice caps.

Arctic Monitoring Stations Report CO2 Levels of 400 PPM

The Arctic region continues to serve as the global climate “canary in a coal” mine. Now, as with average temperature rise, the region is leading into a new troubling milestone as monitoring stations near a remote outpost near Barrow, Alaska are among several such stations to report that average concentrations of CO2 have reached an average of 400 parts per million (PPM) this spring.

Mexico Passes Climate Change Law

The Mexican legislature has recently passed a climate change law. As reported in Nature, the new  law will reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by 30 percent below business-as-usual levels by 2020, and by 50 percent below 2000 levels by 2050. The law also mandates that Mexico will derive 35 percent of its electricity from renewable resources 2024. The climate change bill passed Mexico’s lower house with a vote of 128 for and 10 against and in the Senate the legislation passed unanimously.

Primer on CO2 and Other GHGs

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is at the center of efforts to manage climate change. Many identify CO2 as the leading cause of calamitous environmental destruction, but how does this naturally occurring substance wreak such havoc on our environment?

For over 100 years the scientific community has been warning us of the dangers of global warming caused by CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. In 1896 S. Arrhenius, published the paper "On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground." More recently a plethora of scientific studies have corroborated these early concerns. (In a forthcoming post we will review some of the scientific evidence for global warming).

CO2 and Other GHGs

CO2 is a naturally occurring chemical compound. CO2 is part of the respiration of plants and animals and it is produced through the decay of carbon based material from plants and animals. Some natural processes, such as volcanoes and geysers, also add CO2 to the atmosphere.

Although CO2 gets most of the attention there are other naturally occuring greenhouse gases (GHGs). Water vapor is by far the most important GHG. It evaporates mostly from the ocean, and it causes earth's surface to be about 30°C warmer (out of the 36°C of warming caused by all greenhouse gases combined). Methane is produced by bacteria in wetlands and bogs, cattle, rice paddies, termites, landfills, and coal mining. Nitrous oxide is produced from microbes in the soil and the ocean. Halocarbons such as refrigerants are used in air conditioners and tropospheric ozone, produced in smog.

The Greenhouse Effect

Naturally occuring GHGs like CO2 warm and regulate the earth's temperature through the greenhouse effect. Warming occurs because the GHGs, although transparent to incoming solar radiation, absorb infrared (heat) radiation from the Earth that would otherwise escape from the atmosphere into space. GHGs re-radiate some of the heat back towards the surface of the Earth.

Normally almost half of energy emanating from the sun is trapped in our atmosphere. This natural phenomenon is what we call the greenhouse effect, GHGs warm the earth so that it is conducive to life, if there were no GHGs the temperature on earth would fall below –18 C.

GHGs and Global Warming

The unnatural addition of GHGs to the atmosphere is known as global warming. This unnatural build-up of GHGs in the troposphere (the lower part of the atmosphere about 10-15 kilometres thick) is trapping additional heat. The amount of heat in the troposphere depends on concentrations of GHGs and the amount of time these gasses remain in the atmosphere. CO2 remains in the troposphere between fifty and two hundred years.

CO2 and Human Activities

Anthropogenic (human-produced) CO2 is mixing with naturally produced CO2 and influencing the earth's radiation balance. The two main human activities that increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere are fossil fuel burning and land clearing. The burning of fossil fuels adds about 6 gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere each year.

Prior to the industrial revolution, atmospheric CO2 concentrations had not changed appreciably for over 850 years. That changed around 1850 when human processes began emitting significant quantities of GHGs. Pre-industrial levels of CO2 were approximately 270 and according to scientists at the Mauna Loa observatory, as of 2008, CO2 levels in the atmosphere were at 387 parts per million (ppm). This represents an increase of approximately 40% since the industrial revolution and the highest levels of CO2 in at least 650,000 years.

The US national oceanic and atmospheric administration research has corroborated other findings that indicate CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than expected. Their review suggests that levels of CO2 emmisions are on the increase, from 1970 to 2000, the concentration of CO2 rose by about 1.5ppm each year, but since 2000 the annual rise has surged to an average 2.1ppm. "Researchers suggest the trend could mean that the earth is losing its natural ability to absorb billions of tonne of CO2 each year."

CO2 emissions from cars and industry are a major cause of what we refer to as global warming. These increasing CO2 emissions cause about 50-60% of the global warming. Human activities have released an amount of CO2 that exceeds the amount sequestered in biomass, the oceans, and other sinks. About 22% of the current atmospheric CO2 concentrations exist due to these human activities. Fossil fuel combustion for energy generation causes about 70-75% of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The remaining 20-25% of the emissions are caused by land clearing and burning and by emissions from motor vehicle exhausts.

Other GHGs Associated with Human Activity

According to Ocean World, about two thirds of the methane emissions into the atmosphere come from human activity, mostly from the northern hemisphere. Methane concentration was 1783 parts per billion in 2004, which was 155% larger than pre-industrial concentrations. The rise in methane appears to have leveled off, and concentrations have increased only 5 parts per billion since 1999. Methane does not remain long in the atmosphere, about 8 years (Fischer et al, 2008). However methane is 22 time more effective in absorbing infrared radiation than CO2.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is also a byproduct of burning fossil fuels at high temperatures. About one-third of the emissions into the atmosphere come from human activity. N2O concentrations were 319 parts per billion in 2004, which was 18% larger than pre-industrial concentrations. Its lifetime in the atmosphere is about a century.

US GHG Emissions

Although the US is only 4.6% of the world's population, American energy use accounts for 24% of all the world's energy. According to the Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 89.4% of energy consumption in the US is derived from burning fossil fuels.

The average American uses almost 31 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per day, or 1.3 kilowatts (kW) continuously. Most of that electricity is produced by burning fossil fuels. In certain other fully modern countries (England, France, Germany, Japan), the per-capita average ranges from 0.6 to 0.8 kW. At the other end of the scale, in developing countries where, even if some cities are electrified, rural areas are generally without power, the number is much lower: Mexico uses 0.14 kW, Thailand 0.10, and Peru 0.05. India is way down, at 0.037. China is around 0.07.

While most GHG emissions derive from industrial processes in developed countries like the US, GHGs from developing countries are rising. At the current rate, anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are expected to double in this century.

GHGs contribute to the greenhouse effect and many anthropogenic GHGs are on the increase. In the next post we will review the effects that they are having on the earth and its inhabitants.

Next: The Effects of Global Warming / Debunking CO2 Myths and the Science of Global Warming / Action on Global Warming.

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