The Montreal Protocol Celebrates 23rd Birthday

September 16, 2010, marks the 23rd anniversary of the Montreal Protocol, the international treaty that was created in 1987 to protect and restore the ozone layer. The treaty has achieved each of its goals over the last few decades, including the complete phase-out of CFCs this year.

Aggressively phasing out CFCs translated not only to major ozone protection, but also to significant climate protection: 222 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2-eq.) in mitigation or the elimination of 7 to 12 years worth of emissions.

In 2007 Montreal Protocol parties agreed to accelerate HCFCs, the chemicals that replaced CFCs. This agreement will avoid up to 15 billion tonnes of CO2-eq. by 2040.

HFCs pose a risk as a major GHG, they are widely used as coolants used in refrigeration and air conditioning systems, but new ozone and climate-friendly alternatives exist.

According to the Executive Summary of the 2010 Ozone Assessment by the Montreal Protocol’s Scientific Assessment Panel, the growth of HFCs is growing at an alarming pace and if they are not controlled, their climate impact could equal that of CFCs at their peak.

Serious regulation is required to stem the use of HFCs, if left unchecked this could essentially wipe out progress achieved so far under the Kyoto Protocol. The Federated States of Micronesia, and other island Parties, have been joined by Mexico, the US, and Canada in calling for a ban on HFC.

HFCs could be phased down under the Montreal Protocol which could eliminate up to 100 billion tonnes of CO2-eq emissions by 2050.

With the support of 196 parties, a strong financial mechanism and 23 years of experience and expertise, the Montreal Protocol proves that global agreements on climate change can work. Most importantly the Montreal Protocol has proven its ability to achieve major mitigation in a fast and cost-effective manner,

The Montreal Protocol is a functioning example of a global climate treaty that is a model for the elimination of HFCs and other GHGs.
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Lowering Expectations for UN Climate Negotiations

Conflicting positions are undermining efforts to find agreement on greenhouse gas reductions. Delegates at the recent climate talks in Bonn made no progress on binding targets to reduce carbon emissions, nor were they able to agree on a deal to replace the soon to expire Kyoto Protocol.

The climate change talks began with a document called "A Shared Vision for Long-Term Cooperative Action." The problem is, there is no shared vision and insufficient cooperative action. Delegates at the Bonn conference had to contend with a wide range of competing provisions.

Some less developed nations want to see developed nations assume their share of the carbon space. They argue that industrial countries have 16 percent of the world's population, but they occupy 74 percent of the carbon space. They further argue that each country’s historical carbon emissions should be taken into account. Although this would allow poorer countries with large populations to build their economies, wealthier nations have already dismissed the idea. A global deal to limit GHGs is also being impeded by China’s resistance to compliance monitoring.

As the world's largest economy and biggest producer of emissions, the lack of legislation in the US is another major impediment to progress on a climate change treaty. Although the recession and the vote for change inspired unprecedented international cooperation last year, the collaborative international mood was short-lived and has subsequently subsided.

Politically motivated misinformation has eroded American support for comprehensive climate and energy legislation and this has also dampened efforts to find agreement on a global climate change treaty.

Although last year’s Copenhagen Accord made some progress reducing emissions, the accord was never formally adopted and as such, it is non-binding. Developing nations appear to be reversing their positions by suggesting that their Copenhagen carbon reduction commitments were voluntary, while emissions targets for industrial countries are binding.

Tianjin, China will host a final preparatory meeting in October before the summit in Cancun, Mexico at the end of the year. Although we are unlikely to see a global treaty before the 2012 climate summit in South Africa, we can still see agreements on financial assistance and technology transfer.

The Kyoto Protocol is due to expire in 2012 and international disagreements obscure the urgency of binding agreements to manage climate change. Although some delegates have begun considering the possibility of extending the Kyoto Protocol until a replacement can be developed, we also need a binding agreement that addresses the rapidly growing emissions of developing countries.

For three years the world has unsuccessfully pursued an elusive formula that could pave the way for an international climate change treaty. Last year there were high expectations, this year, already low expectations have been lowered further still.
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This article was originally published in GWIR on Wednesday 11 August 2010.

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